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20121006
20121014
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Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6 (some duplicates have been removed)
PBS
Oct 12, 2012 5:30pm PDT
, or a secretly taped fundraising talk. >> here is romney, that secret video taping of the 47%. >> reporter: we found one such bettor, mit sloan school student andre gloria. >> the question that you're really answering when you're placing a bet is: who do you think will win? not who will you vote for? >> reporter: gloria is constantly checking betting markets the world or. >> ill have a nice christmas break, thanks to this, yeah. >> reporter: and though this mba student doesn't play in low- stakes iowa, he's very much like her speculators, says joyce berg. our market traders are very different than the general voting population. they're predominantly male, they're wealthier than the average voter, younger than the average voter, better educated than the average voter. >> reporter: and as we take one last look at the iowa market, the quietest bookie in america, one last question-- how accurate have the polls proved to be? >> so we've gone back over time since the '88 election, looked at over 900 polls and compared the iem prediction to the poll prediction and found that in 75% of the cases the i
PBS
Oct 13, 2012 12:00am PDT
so gladly >> generally, people who are interested in talking about politics love to engage, so they talk to us quite a bit. >> reporter: but since every pollster claims to come up with a scientific random sample eventually, how can the results be romney up by four and obama down by three at the very same time? newly minted phd economist david rothschild works at microsoft research in manhattan. rothschild looks at economic models, state polls and markets. his currently gives obama a 65% chance to win. >> i never sweat too much about any individual poll because there's too much noise. >> reporter: too much noise meaning... >> too much movement. >> reporter: take the so-called bumps - after a vice- presidential pick, or a convention. or take the first presidential debate. say you're a democrat, the morning after. a pollster calls you, you dont want anything to do with it, you're upset, you hang up that phone. they call another guy, the exact same demographics as you because they're trying to fill some sort of demographic hole or whatnot, he's a republican, hes stoked. the same pe
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6 (some duplicates have been removed)